S&P 500 Index
Normal · quintile 4
| Window | Mean | Median | Positive | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1D | +0.34% | +0.34% | 100% | 2 |
| +5D | +0.19% | +0.19% | 50% | 2 |
| +1M | -0.38% | -0.38% | 50% | 2 |
Low sample: interpret these outcomes cautiously.
Release IntelligenceWorkspace current
week-ended-2026-10-07 · Federal Reserve
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
One workspace for briefing, official publication status, market reaction, and comparable historical outcomes.
- Scheduled
- Oct 8 · 8:30:00 PM UTC
- Published
- Not reported
- Available
- Oct 8 · 8:30:21 PM UTC
- 21.3 sec after schedule (fallback basis)
- Market clock
- Scheduled time
- New York sessions
Before release
Release Briefing
The Federal Reserve balance sheet and reserve components map shifts in banking-system liquidity.
Analysis componentOpen five-year indicator analysis
- Event value
- 6,747,560 millions of dollars
- Fed Balance Sheet
- Current / event regime
- Normal
- z 0.38
- Historical percentile
- 70th percentile
- Quintile 4 · five years
- Revision reliability
- High
- 100/100 · 9 releases
At release
Release Monitor
| Indicator | Actual | Prior initial | Prior revised | Release move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance SheetLevel · Official | 6,747,560 millions of dollars | 6,743,031 millions of dollars | — | +4,529 millions of dollars |
| Fed Balance SheetChange · Official | 4,529 millions of dollars | -4,673 millions of dollars | — | +9,202 millions of dollars |
| Reserve BalancesLevel · Official | 3,029,659 millions of dollars | 2,948,090 millions of dollars | — | +81,569 millions of dollars |
| Reserve BalancesChange · Official | 81,569 millions of dollars | 17,897 millions of dollars | — | +63,672 millions of dollars |
| Treasury General AccountLevel · Official | 880,253 millions of dollars | 948,674 millions of dollars | — | -68,421 millions of dollars |
| Treasury General AccountChange · Official | -68,421 millions of dollars | -28,410 millions of dollars | — | -40,011 millions of dollars |
“Release move” is initial minus the revised prior when available, otherwise initial minus the prior print. It is not a consensus surprise.
After release
Market Reaction
S&P 500 and Nasdaq cumulative returns from the last regular close before publication to the +1D, +5D, and +1M trading sessions.
| Benchmark | +1D | +5D | +1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | +0.59% | -0.27% | -5.0% |
| Nasdaq Composite | +0.64% | -1.77% | -9.61% |
Regime + percentile matched
Historical Analogues
Low-sample analogue history · 9 evaluated
2 matching releases
Nasdaq Composite
Normal · quintile 4
| Window | Mean | Median | Positive | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1D | +0.44% | +0.44% | 100% | 2 |
| +5D | +0.86% | +0.86% | 50% | 2 |
| +1M | -2.35% | -2.35% | 0% | 2 |
Low sample: interpret these outcomes cautiously.
Stored release examples
week-ended-2026-09-09
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,740,619 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 3,415 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,991,310 millions of dollars
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 +0.86% · D5 +0.77%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +0.96% · D5 +1.69%
week-ended-2026-08-05
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,748,567 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 10,377 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,993,349 millions of dollars
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 +0.62% · D5 +0.98%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +1.3% · D5 +1.45%
week-ended-2026-09-30
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,743,031 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: -4,673 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,948,090 millions of dollars
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 +0.73% · D5 +1.89%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +1.19% · D5 +1.84%
week-ended-2026-09-16
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,746,548 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 5,929 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 3,013,794 millions of dollars
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 +0.17% · D5 +1.38%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +0.39% · D5 +2.46%
week-ended-2026-09-02
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,737,204 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 6,292 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,894,531 millions of dollars
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.38% · D5 -1.65%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 -0.29% · D5 -1.5%
Aggregate outcomes use only earlier releases of the selected component with the same as-of-release regime and five-year percentile quintile. The target event is excluded and pending trading horizons remain unavailable until enough closes exist.