S&P 500 Index
Normal · quintile 3
| Window | Mean | Median | Positive | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1D | +0.86% | +0.86% | 100% | 1 |
| +5D | +0.61% | +0.61% | 100% | 1 |
| +1M | +2.9% | +2.9% | 100% | 1 |
Low sample: interpret these outcomes cautiously.
Release IntelligenceWorkspace current
week-ended-2026-09-30 · Federal Reserve
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
One workspace for briefing, official publication status, market reaction, and comparable historical outcomes.
- Scheduled
- Oct 1 · 8:30:00 PM UTC
- Published
- Not reported
- Available
- Oct 1 · 8:30:16 PM UTC
- 16.1 sec after schedule (fallback basis)
- Market clock
- Scheduled time
- New York sessions
Before release
Release Briefing
The Federal Reserve balance sheet and reserve components map shifts in banking-system liquidity.
Analysis componentOpen five-year indicator analysis
- Event value
- 6,743,031 millions of dollars
- Fed Balance Sheet
- Current / event regime
- Normal
- z -0.19
- Historical percentile
- 44th percentile
- Quintile 3 · five years
- Revision reliability
- High
- 100/100 · 8 releases
At release
Release Monitor
| Indicator | Actual | Prior initial | Prior revised | Release move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Balance SheetLevel · Official | 6,743,031 millions of dollars | 6,747,704 millions of dollars | — | -4,673 millions of dollars |
| Fed Balance SheetChange · Official | -4,673 millions of dollars | 1,156 millions of dollars | — | -5,829 millions of dollars |
| Reserve BalancesLevel · Official | 2,948,090 millions of dollars | 2,930,193 millions of dollars | — | +17,897 millions of dollars |
| Reserve BalancesChange · Official | 17,897 millions of dollars | -83,601 millions of dollars | — | +101,498 millions of dollars |
| Treasury General AccountLevel · Official | 948,674 millions of dollars | 977,084 millions of dollars | — | -28,410 millions of dollars |
| Treasury General AccountChange · Official | -28,410 millions of dollars | 100,056 millions of dollars | — | -128,466 millions of dollars |
“Release move” is initial minus the revised prior when available, otherwise initial minus the prior print. It is not a consensus surprise.
After release
Market Reaction
S&P 500 and Nasdaq cumulative returns from the last regular close before publication to the +1D, +5D, and +1M trading sessions.
| Benchmark | +1D | +5D | +1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | +0.73% | +1.29% | -1.13% |
| Nasdaq Composite | +1.19% | +1.2% | -5.34% |
Regime + percentile matched
Historical Analogues
Low-sample analogue history · 8 evaluated
1 matching releases
Nasdaq Composite
Normal · quintile 3
| Window | Mean | Median | Positive | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1D | +0.96% | +0.96% | 100% | 1 |
| +5D | +1.29% | +1.29% | 100% | 1 |
| +1M | +4.92% | +4.92% | 100% | 1 |
Low sample: interpret these outcomes cautiously.
Stored release examples
week-ended-2026-09-09
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,740,619 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 3,415 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,991,310 millions of dollars
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 +0.86% · D5 +0.77%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +0.96% · D5 +1.69%
week-ended-2026-08-19
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,745,699 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: -14,256 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,935,287 millions of dollars
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 +0.43% · D5 +0.92%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +0.43% · D5 +1.29%
week-ended-2026-08-05
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,748,567 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 10,377 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,993,349 millions of dollars
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 +0.62% · D5 +0.98%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 +1.3% · D5 +1.45%
week-ended-2026-08-26
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,730,912 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: -14,787 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,924,936 millions of dollars
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.25% · D5 -0.16%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 -0.52% · D5 -0.13%
week-ended-2026-09-02
Factors Affecting Reserve Balances
Fed Balance Sheet: 6,737,204 millions of dollarsFed Balance Sheet: 6,292 millions of dollarsReserve Balances: 2,894,531 millions of dollars
- S&P 500 Index
- D0 -0.38% · D5 -1.65%
- Nasdaq Composite
- D0 -0.29% · D5 -1.5%
Aggregate outcomes use only earlier releases of the selected component with the same as-of-release regime and five-year percentile quintile. The target event is excluded and pending trading horizons remain unavailable until enough closes exist.